Kerala Assembly Election 2021 - Data Analysis & Prediction

Data analyst view of Kerala Assembly elections 2021

This is based on last two assembly election results. This doesn't consider Lok Sabha vote share  or local body election results.

Incorporated the usual swing between alliances (i.e.  2016 LDF narrow swings are possibly return)

There is no visible massive ant incumbency on ground   

The result derived are as follows

•  Strong   Consecutive win with more than 10% Margin of votes Polled
• High  For UDF, Held in 2016 with more than 4%  margin during LDF swing in 2016, For LDF held during 2016 with more than 9% margin
• Likely  More than 10% margin in 2016
• NarrowHold Consecutive win but with very less than 9%  margins, UDF hold is more confident considering 2016 is LDF swing
• Possible   Very less confidence. Almost Unpredictable

Considering this election as a normal one without any highly dominating issues on the ground unlike previous general election . It seems LDF has a clear edge.

Without any very strong emotional issue driving public opinion , LDF has got some 41 Safe seats as against 17 for UDF(Mostly IUML). 

X Factors which can alter this 

• Any ground level disaffection in LDF constituencies in South Kerala for removing strong leaders.(Which usually will not be visible on ground as in general election time)
• Shabarimala still playing a role in voters choice in south districts and Thrissur 

If the above factors play a crucial role, There are around 15-18 seats which will shift to UDF and 2-3 to NDA. This is unlikely but if that happens, It will throw up a scenario where all small constituents will  be more assertive to a point of another realignment.

Watch this space for more...