Tuesday, March 18, 2014

General Election 2014: Economy (“Good Economy, Bad politics” ? )

Like any other dimensions for election 2014,Economist is also as deeply divided and are taking extreme positions.The two major schools of thoughts emerged and deeply divided are from Amarthya Sen  and Jagadish Bhagavathi,They had written and dissected the “Gujarat Economic model” in great detail.

On a broader prospective Bahawathi emphasis for more “Growth” and believe this will eventually tickle down to various weaker sessions and will more or less automatically follow.While Sen believes more important is distribution and empowerment of the “Weekest”, so that with there contribution the economy will grow.One emphasis on the need for creating more resources for re-distribution and other one emphasis for distribution of the current resources to create more resources.
Clearly a Chicken-Egg problem with out clear answers, the middle line is what everybody agrees so that it is equally important to create resources and also effectively distribute it to poor.

If you look back, the Vajpayee led NDA focused only on first and the UPA II continue the second approach even after the tipping point.Getting in to growth track is relatively easy with right policies but to fixing the distribution mechanism will need real administrative excellence.
What need to be distributed? Is it direct cash or is it subsidized food and fuel or is it cash for job which doesn’t create value.Economist agrees it has to be spending on Education, Health and Energy. But will any of that is effective in bridging rich-poor gap in India?

Coming back, Congress is clearly put more emphasis on the redistribution but without fixing the effectivness of the channel. Hence even if Sen was right, the tickle up effect didn't happen for Indian economy.
Only the agents benefited and most of the impact was in shadow economy rather than the real one. The flagship “AADHAAR”  to fix the distribution issue is still a non starter.
AAP lone focus is fixing this channel of distribution and fights against corruption with whatever methods seem possible.They don’t have any policies or doesn’t seem to have one to fix the already emptied coffers to even continue most of the Social Security schemes dolled out by UPA.
BJP, even though haven’t come up with a clear road map, the market see Narendra Modi the right choice to fix the growth issue.He hasn't opened his cards on the distribution question but time and again emphasis to fix the channel issue using more transparency and with the help of technology.
I don’t want to talk about any regional parties economic policies as there is nothing remarkable even from the Left.

Clearly on the economic front,BJP is the clear front runner from the available choices, AAPs focus on fixing the weakest link in the chain to fix the economy and thus  rank  second and Congress with his focus only on legislating more social schemes perform badly in this subject.
It is no more “Good economy, Bad politics” in India.

Really appreciate any comments if any are restricted to economic policy.

Saturday, March 15, 2014


“In the west, People expect their representatives to have higher moral integrity than them, In India it is the other way around, it will be nearly impossible for a divorcĂ© to run for president in USA”.
Dr Shashi Taroor said to packed hall of Techies in Zenith hall at Techno Park who had gathered there to hear the charismatic diplomat who is just back from his glorious stint at UN.

Came 2009 election, when congress fielded him despite opposition from local units. It was a ray of hope, Fresh air to the rotten political landscape of kerala.
I have asked all who was within my realm of influence to embrace the opportunity and be part of the change.
Back then there were no congress machinery supporting him, He was still an outsider to vernacular media and top leadership of congress.
Still he won, won with a margin of 1 L plus vote.

After 5 years, Rather than changing the system Shahi Taroor got changed to be part of it.
Now, in 2014 he is seen as another congress politician. He is no more an outsider people want to experiment.
So they will go by track record. For Taroor the expectation bar is higher than the other usual candidates as he promised to be different.

I think, as a mister for state for external affairs minister he did well and that was his natural area of strength.
Then came the IPL controversy and the resignation, He made a historic speech in Loksabha before his resignation that made every Keralite proud.
His intentions were right and Kochi Tuskers was a new experiment which did give some new breath to kochi’s hospitality business.
I think IPL fiasco made him change the course, From then on he was just part of normal political business and learned that it is better to be part of the “political system” rather than being outside.
The results were rewarding in personal front. Another marriage, Came back to the ministry of Human resources.
But for Thiruvanthapuram voter, they lost the real representative they selected in 2009.

I went through the achievement list from Dr Shashi Taroor, and if he really thinks he is satisfied with it and think people should elect him on that then I am really disappointed.
And add it to that the same person who thought “Cesor’s wife must be above suspicion” in 2008 now come to the full circle form Western Morality to Eastern political standards.