The most repeated question I had to answer to my friends
from northern part of India Since May 16 was why did Kerala didn’t show even a
sign of Modi tide in this election. I tried to answer it in bit and pieces but
couldn’t actually convince my neo Modi
friends with any theory. For every theory I proposed there was probing questions for which
I failed to come up with any convincing conclusions.
Now after the results are out, There is now a broader consensus that the there were two visible
narratives for this election one of aspiration and hope championed by Narendra Modi
and the other one of fear of Modi by others.
There were under currents of polarisation beneath the surface but judging by
the result the conclusion is that the story of development and good governance did
had a larger impact than the pessimistic negative campaign.
Considering theory of change and aspiration politics as the
cause for Modi wave in India, One wonder why a politically active and highly
literate electorate in Kerala didn’t buy it? By any standards the roads and
other infrastructure in Kerala is in a dismay,The civic amenities is worse than
any comparable north Indian city, People were more disillusioned with UPA than
any other part of India and State government didn’t had a wonderful track
record to boost.Still one wonders why Modi
and BJP failed to convert the favourable
climate to at least tide even if not a wave.
My logical conclusion are the following. The BJP failed to
communicate effectively the hope and aspiration narrative successfully in
kerala.
They failed miserably in selling the product “Gujarat Model”
which was packaged superbly by Modi and successfully marketed in other parts of
India.
The Gujarat Model and the Good roads ,Industrialisation,
Jobs and economic revival are as relevant to an educated Malayali as his counterpart
in North.
But none of it was a primary discussion in this election in
kerala.Modi’s oratory skills were not able to impress the Malayali and lost in translation.
The Kerala media houses was successful in ensuring
the two rallies he attended in Kerala
was a no event. When the speeches by modi was aired live by national
television ,there was not even one media house which had given more than 5
minute time for airing Modi’s speech at Thiruvanthapuram.
So the Marketing of the “Gujarat model” and “Good times ahead
“failed miserably in Kerala and the lack of any meaningful leadership in the
state failed to dictate this narrative in this election.
If you go by the other narrative of communal argument that Modi succeeded in polarising the
electorate theory ,This should had a greater impact in Kerala under the current
circumstances especially in southern part. There was an ideal scenario to reap
benefit from such an approach. There was a government controlled by minorities and
there were lot of propaganda run by various Hindu sections formation prior to elections in
these lines.BJP having realised the need for minority votes didn’t actively
pursue this approach either.
Oomen chandy attributed
the congress win to the liberal and secular
mind set of Kerala community.
But that is difficult to digest to someone who leave in
Kerala where religion and caste divisions are increasingly growing in all
aspect f social life.
If that was the case AAP should have made a better footprint
in Kerala in this election.
The lefts theory of minority polarisation due to the fear of
Modi helping congress in Kerala too is flawed as this time they did all the trick in its books
to get it share from minority.
So digesting this election to find why Kerala voted
differently or rather why Modi didn’t had any positive impact lead to only one
answer. There was no right positioning of what worked in India in Kerala.
You will not find any one on in Kerala who has even a slight
hope of anything related to governance of government will ever change. They
have strong belief and conviction about
what a government means in India at all levels which cannot be broken that easily.
Until and Unless a strong leader emerge who can directly communicate to Middle
class and lower section of the society in Kerala effectively like Modi did in
UP,
Kerala will continue
to choose to remain the way it is deep routed in despair and denial and as of
now there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
