Kerala Assembly Election 2021 - Data Analysis & Prediction

Data analyst view of Kerala Assembly elections 2021

This is based on last two assembly election results. This doesn't consider Lok Sabha vote share  or local body election results.

Incorporated the usual swing between alliances (i.e.  2016 LDF narrow swings are possibly return)

There is no visible massive ant incumbency on ground   

The result derived are as follows

•  Strong   Consecutive win with more than 10% Margin of votes Polled
• High  For UDF, Held in 2016 with more than 4%  margin during LDF swing in 2016, For LDF held during 2016 with more than 9% margin
• Likely  More than 10% margin in 2016
• NarrowHold Consecutive win but with very less than 9%  margins, UDF hold is more confident considering 2016 is LDF swing
• Possible   Very less confidence. Almost Unpredictable

Considering this election as a normal one without any highly dominating issues on the ground unlike previous general election . It seems LDF has a clear edge.

Without any very strong emotional issue driving public opinion , LDF has got some 41 Safe seats as against 17 for UDF(Mostly IUML). 

X Factors which can alter this 

• Any ground level disaffection in LDF constituencies in South Kerala for removing strong leaders.(Which usually will not be visible on ground as in general election time)
• Shabarimala still playing a role in voters choice in south districts and Thrissur 

If the above factors play a crucial role, There are around 15-18 seats which will shift to UDF and 2-3 to NDA. This is unlikely but if that happens, It will throw up a scenario where all small constituents will  be more assertive to a point of another realignment.

Watch this space for more...

"Defending a Proxy War" at the time of "Civil liberty"

“Going to war  needs continuous psychological drilling and need disciplined training for years.. Else who will go to siachen glacier  and serve there for years”.

Words from Manohar Parikar during one of the NASSCOM ILF 2016 Speech. The context was highlighting how some of the  culture and traditions are deep routed in the armed forces.

Each unit of Indian army have built gallantry stories and have their own unique culture and traditions, Which may not always justifiable to Scientific thought and individualism.                                                                                                                                      

In order for anyone to serve in siachen need more motivation and a better reason than the mere high attitude allowance come with it.

With the Digital World and unrestricted communication, How would a commanding officer keep his unit on that level of high morale when his men has also access to the strong counter argument from the Civil liberty group ?

1.       I think as a country , We are still fighting an ISI monster, Who has full state machinery at its disposal

2.       ISI is fighting us with a proxy war with full state machinery at its disposal

3.       Unless we get to stage of normal relation and a normal border with Pakistan on Kashmir ,The priority still is to consider the feelings of the men in uniform than the right of Students for their right to dissent on high decibel voice.

4.       There is no issue with criticising the hanging of Afzal Guru, It becomes antinational at the time when a sizeable portion of Indian army fighting everyday at odds against unknown enemy.

It becomes antinational when air waves form JNU take it right to him instantly. It become antinational when you unknowingly question the deep drilled convention of the men in uniform.

I wish the political masters visiting JNU to visit the units in Kashmir and do justify why he should risk his life to defend Kashmir when most of his fellowman doesn’t think that cause..Else,Atleast show the courage to switch the priority to “Civil liberty” from Kashmir.

You can’t continue chanting “Kashmir is integral to India” and then on same note justify someone who celebrate the “Martyrdom of Afzal guru”  when communication  no more stop at the door of barracks.

AAP ka Kerala: Badly Need a Kejriwal for Kerala

With the surprise grand AAP victory in Delhi ,The questions are again asked about the states it should expand next.Punjab is the obvious answer most are talking about and with right reasons. But Kerala is another one suggested by some analyst.

So the big question is, Can AAP extend its impact to Kerala for the next Assembly election which is another 18 months away.

Party wise vote share for 2014 Lok Sabha election Kerala (Source: Election commission of India)

		Aam Aadmi Party	NOTA
Thiruvananthapuram	SRI. AJIT JOY	14153	3344
Alappuzha	D MOHANAN	9414	11338
Kottayam	ADV.ANIL AIKKARA	26381	14024
Ernakulam	ANITHA PRATAP	51517	9735
Thrissur	SARAH JOSEPH	44638	10050

Number of Votes for AAP candidates against NOTA .2014 Lok Sabha election (Source: Election commission of India)

If you analyse, the vote share during last election doesn’t give much promise.

But, Kerala’s current political ,social and economic  scenario provides an ideal ground for AAP to make a big positive impact.

Everybody badly  need a new alternative in kerala. But can AAP fill that gap?

AAP correctly fit to an average young Malayali’s political idealism and activism.

But What it lacks is a towering local leader like Arvind Kejirwal.

Even with so many eminent people joining it and even contesting election, they  doesn’t have a towering influence across all sections of the society.

The one ideal choice I could come up  going through so many faces is Raju Narayana Swamy( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raju_Narayana_Swamy).

He is an IITian IAS officer with impeccable record. If he leads that will be a revolution in kerala.

Raju Narayana Swamy,Can you rise and take the risk to give the much needed hope for a malayali generation caught  between cocaine and maoist?

Far the people to For the people : Indian democracy's defining moment

Another historic day for Indian democracy.

AAP win is different for different people based on your prejudice and political affiliations.

For an average Indian this win is another sign that reiterates Indian democracy is in right direction.

It is a warning to Modi and Shah ,So to act on the promised change faster.

A reiteration to congress that Indian politics has changed forever and for good.

And a remainder to other caste and dynastic regional parties that there decimation is not far away if they don’t prepare to change.

Final nail in the Left to realise what it is really meant to be pro poor.

So what 10^th February AAP result offer for days to come?

It is defiantly a sign of change and sign of things to come.

Modi being a smart politician will see the writings on the wall and there will be fast actions towards change.

There will be more introspection in congress and people will be more vocal now for active leadership.

Left will be left with only leaders and regional satraps will try the last trick in their book to be stay relevant.

It will be interesting  to see an AAP government in action in Delhi and the first budget  from Modi government in the coming days.

What is Left with "Left" in kerala

General election 2014  was very crucial for left politics in Kerala. Having been pushed to the wall in West Bengal, Kerala was critical for the survival of the left.

There are various challenges faced by the party in Kerala and it is  high time for it to  introspect and do the required course correction.

Left ideology and its relevance in post globalisation era has been much debated and written about in great detail for the last 15 years.

But still it could remain relevant in the electoral space due to the two party dominated politics in Kerala. But if you analyse the 2014  result, Then “Left” is now left with the some hard choices.

Left in Kerala is facing existential challenges ,and any delay in recognizing this by its top leadership will be losing a chance to revive and rebuilt.

The state secretary’s radical moves towards accepting the new world order alienates a section who was fascinated by the ideology.

AAP with its near ideal image is drawing another class which is deep routed with political idealism than pragmatism.

Radical right wing politics of BJP is slowly drawing another section of the moderate Hindus from its ranks.

The leader’s arrogance and attitude is impacting another section of society which is glued to news channels from dawn to dusk for their political recipe.

Add to it any effort to win minorities is not getting the expected results. 

What is sad for any liberal left supporter in Kerala is the leadership reluctance to accept the reality.

Rather than realizing and admitting the ground realities the just concluded PB meeting came up with reasons like Minority consolidation for the recent failure of the left in Kerala.

The only Way Left can being relevant is to transform itself and unless the comrades have the courage to correct their leaders left will soon become history in Kerala.

Kerala: Untouched by Modi Tsunami

The most repeated question I had to answer to my friends from northern part of India Since May 16 was why did Kerala didn’t show even a sign of Modi tide in this election. I tried to answer it in bit and pieces but couldn’t actually  convince my neo Modi friends with any theory. For every theory  I proposed there was probing questions for which I failed to come up with any convincing conclusions.

Now after the results are out, There is now a  broader consensus that the there were two visible narratives for this election one of aspiration and hope championed by Narendra Modi and the other one of fear of Modi  by others. There were under currents of polarisation beneath the surface but judging by the result the conclusion is that the story of development and good governance did had a larger impact than the pessimistic negative campaign.

Considering theory of change and aspiration politics as the cause for Modi wave in India, One wonder why a politically active and highly literate electorate in Kerala didn’t buy it? By any standards the roads and other infrastructure in Kerala is in a dismay,The civic amenities is worse than any comparable north Indian city, People were more disillusioned with UPA than any other part of India and State government didn’t had a wonderful track record to boost.Still one wonders why  Modi  and BJP failed to convert the favourable climate to at least tide even if not a wave.

My logical conclusion are the following. The BJP failed to communicate effectively the hope and aspiration narrative successfully in kerala.

They failed miserably in selling the product “Gujarat Model” which was packaged superbly by Modi and successfully marketed in other parts of India.

The Gujarat Model and the Good roads ,Industrialisation, Jobs and economic revival are as relevant to an educated Malayali as his counterpart in North.

But none of it was a primary discussion in this election in kerala.Modi’s oratory skills were not able to impress the Malayali and lost in translation.

The Kerala media houses was successful in  ensuring  the two rallies he attended in Kerala  was a no event. When the speeches by modi was aired live by national television ,there was not even one media house which had given more than 5 minute time for airing Modi’s speech at Thiruvanthapuram.

So the Marketing of the “Gujarat model” and “Good times ahead “failed miserably in Kerala and the lack of any meaningful leadership in the state failed to dictate this narrative in this election.

If you go by the other narrative of communal  argument that Modi succeeded in polarising the electorate theory ,This should had a greater impact in Kerala under the current circumstances especially in southern part. There was an ideal scenario to reap benefit from such an approach. There was  a government controlled by minorities and there were lot of propaganda run by various  Hindu sections formation prior to elections in these lines.BJP having realised the need for minority votes didn’t actively pursue this approach either.

Oomen chandy  attributed the congress win to the liberal  and secular mind set of Kerala community.

But that is difficult to digest to someone who leave in Kerala where religion and caste divisions are increasingly growing in all aspect f social life.

If that was the case AAP should have made a better footprint in Kerala in this election.

The lefts theory of minority polarisation due to the fear of Modi helping congress in Kerala too is flawed as  this time they did all the trick in its books to get it share from minority.

So digesting this election to find why Kerala voted differently or rather why Modi didn’t had any positive impact lead to only one answer. There was no right positioning of what worked in India in Kerala.

You will not find any one on in Kerala who has even a slight hope of anything related to governance of government will ever change. They have  strong belief and conviction about what a government means in India at all levels which cannot be broken that easily. Until and Unless a strong leader emerge who can directly communicate to Middle class and lower section of the society in Kerala effectively like Modi did in UP,

 Kerala will continue to choose to remain the way it is deep routed in despair and denial and as of now there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

God's own country to God's only country

With elections around the corner, it is increasingly becoming evident that the educated, politically aware Kerala population is leaning more towards religion and caste based identity politics.

It is indeed sad that when other part of the country is slowly moving towards development oriented debates, the state which was known for its progressive outlook is going backward.

In Kerala there was always deep caste and communal mindset but the strong Left moment never allowed it to dictate the political mind map of the people.But recent developments and opinion polls strongly show this trend is getting reversed that too with alarming rate. This will have severe consequence for a state like Kerala.The way the major politicians compete openly for patronage of Bishops, Imams and other Caste leaders is unprecedented in the state history.

In a highly politically active state like Kerala, the political landscape does reflect the Social mindset. There seem to be a polarization happening along caste and religious lines than never before.The key reason for this is the ideological decline of Left activism from Kerala. The moderate voices from all religion are moving out from Left to the corresponding political groups representing their interest.What is striking is that the younger voice which collectively resist against caste based politics in other parts of the country is absent in kerala's social limelight.

There may be various reasons for these alarming phenomena but the most striking and the root cause seem to be the selfish crony capitalist mind set of the new generation which replaced the deep routed moral socialistic mindset of the past one, but interestingly the responsibility for this transition actually lies with the old one who taught money was more important than anything to their children.

Ones a God's own country is now a God's only country with more emphasis on God and Religion than Humans.